LSU football College Football Playoff odds entering bye week | LSU

Kenny Minchey waltzed into the end zone, and LSU’s chances had gone up in smoke.

At least seemingly. Reaching the College Football Playoff would be much harder with two losses and six Southeastern Conference games left, especially with matchups against Texas, Alabama and Tennessee still on the schedule. One loss to any of those teams and the playoff hopes in Lane Kiffin’s first season probably were toast.

Alabama is the only three-loss SEC team to make the playoff since it expanded to 12 teams, and the Crimson Tide’s third defeat last year came in the SEC Championship Game. That’s why LSU’s loss to Kentucky seemed fatal.

“We’ve got to play more consistent,” Kiffin said on the Sunday after that loss. “Too high and low, too up and down in all phases of the game.”

Then the dominoes began to fall in LSU’s favor. Alabama and Texas suffered losses in back-to-back weeks. Georgia was upset by Auburn, and Tennessee — after taking down Alabama — fell to South Carolina. Ole Miss, which beat LSU in Week 3, suffered its second loss last week to Texas after the Longhorns dropped winnable games against Oklahoma and Florida.

In the two weeks after LSU’s crushing loss to Kentucky, the race for playoff spots in the SEC has flung open. Heading into this weekend, Kentucky and Georgia are the only SEC teams with one loss. No team in the conference is undefeated.

LSU isn’t just alive; the Tigers have a real shot at reaching the CFP.

“I think when we have our players, and we don’t screw games up,” Kiffin said, “we’re really hard to beat.”

According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, LSU has a 45% chance of clinching a spot in the 12-team field. Only four SEC teams hold better odds than LSU: Georgia (80%), Alabama (63%), Texas (57%) and Kentucky (52%).

Ole Miss (39%), Tennessee (23%) and Florida (17%) are the only other SEC teams with odds above 10%.

Per ESPN’s prediction tool, LSU has at least a 99% chance of making the playoff if it wins its remaining regular-season games. The Tigers can even lose one of their last three contests against Alabama, Texas or Tennessee, and their playoff odds remain above 60%.

If they lose to Alabama and beat Texas and Tennessee, their likelihood of making the CFP is 62%. Their chances go up to 65% with wins over Alabama and Tennessee and a loss to Texas. And in a scenario where they lose to Tennessee but beat Alabama and Texas, LSU’s odds hold steady at 65%.

Those percentages hinge on the assumption that LSU will miss the SEC Championship Game with three losses. But if the Tigers sneak into the conference title game with a 9-3 record and lose, their playoff odds would hover between 40% and 50%, depending on who they’d lose their third regular-season game to.

LSU controls its own CFP destiny with Texas, Alabama and Tennessee left on its schedule, but its CFP odds could improve if Ole Miss and Florida’s two-loss resumes were weakened by a loss to Georgia, or if two-loss Missouri dropped one or two more games to Kentucky, Georgia or Texas. Kentucky has only one loss but still faces plenty of obstacles, including Tennessee, Florida and Missouri.

More losses for any of those one- or two-loss teams could further boost LSU’s playoff odds, especially if the Tigers lose a third game. But LSU and the SEC’s playoff hopes also would improve if the top teams in the other major conferences keep struggling.

Many teams outside the SEC that were playoff contenders heading into the season have fallen off or are facing uncertainty. Ohio State might not have its starting quarterback for the rest of the season and has already lost to Texas. Texas Tech came into last week ranked in the top 10 but lost to Cincinnati on Saturday. Indiana’s only loss came to Ohio State, but the Hoosiers have struggled on offense throughout Big Ten play.

Oregon already has three losses and will be without quarterback Dante Moore for the rest of the year. BYU beat Notre Dame two weeks ago, then suffered a massive upset loss to Central Florida last week. The only remaining undefeated Power Four teams are Miami, Utah and UCLA, and Utah faces two more teams ranked in the AP Top 25, while Miami has a date with Notre Dame in two weeks.

Chaos has reigned in the SEC, but the same story has played out across the country. It’s a formula that spells good news for LSU, and a scenario it couldn’t have anticipated just a couple of weeks ago when Minchey scurried untouched into the end zone.