U.S. oil is breaking out as Iran war continues. A look at how past peaks have affected stocks
WTI crude oil has extended its steep upmove amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty, which has investors on edge. We revisited previous shocks in the price of crude oil and reviewed the subsequent performance of the S & P 500 Index (SPX) . Specifically, we examined the last four major peaks to get a sense of the impact on the equity market. To frame the recent upmove, we share a monthly bar chart of WTI crude oil, which flashed a monthly MACD buy signal in February, marking the culmination of an extended downtrend off the 2022 highs. The signal supports a continuation higher in crude oil in the coming months. While the current geopolitical backdrop may produce near-term peak levels that do not hold, the technical setup suggests WTI crude oil is in the early stages of an up-cycle that could persist for an extended period. Historically, crude oil up-cycles have often lined up with weaker tapes for the equity market. In most cases, the SPX has struggled to sustain upside momentum following major peaks in crude oil and has instead moved into corrective periods or bear market cycles. The most recent example came in March 2022, which may be the closest comparison to the current environment. Following that peak in WTI crude oil, the major indices remained under pressure through much of the year. Other examples show that the equity response is not uniform, conditions generally become more difficult after crude oil price shocks. After the October 2018 peak, the SPX saw a sharp correction before resuming its secular uptrend. In 2011, the response was more of a prolonged trading range. In 2008, crude oil peaked just as the major indices were beginning a severe bear market cycle. Crude oil peaks do not cause every equity drawdown, but history shows they have often coincided with the advent of tougher market conditions. With WTI crude oil having broken out, this does not suggest stocks will break down, but that the SPX is likely to see more choppy, corrective action in the months ahead. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . DISCLOSURES: All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. 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