LSU will begin the second half of its season on Saturday ranked top 10 nationally in total defense.
That’s an impressive number. But while it signals that Blake Baker’s unit is on track to improve its overall statistics for the third year in a row, it doesn’t quite tell the full story.
The Tigers are 4-2, and they need to win a home game against Mississippi State at 11 a.m. Saturday (ESPN) to make sure they don’t slip outside College Football Playoff contention for good. LSU has found itself in that position at this point in the season, in part because it gave up 32 points to Ole Miss in Week 3 and 28 to Kentucky last week in overtime.
Baker’s defense has been dominant otherwise, albeit against lesser competition: two overmatched nonconference opponents (Louisiana Tech and McNeese) and two high-level programs with struggling offenses (Clemson and Texas A&M).
So, how good is the LSU defense, really?
It’s a tricky question to answer, but let’s dive in ahead of what could be a tough test against the Bulldogs.
The bad
LSU ranks sixth among FBS teams in total defense (251 yards per game) but 32nd in scoring defense (19 points per game).
Those numbers signal to coach Lane Kiffin that the Tigers aren’t defending the red zone well enough. They’ve allowed only eight red-zone touchdowns all year, but seven of them came in their losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky.
The Rebels reached the end zone on four of the five red-zone drives they built against LSU, while the Wildcats did it on three of their eight.
“We do really good things,” Kiffin said, “and then we don’t finish drives on both sides of the ball well enough.
“A lot of times we’re just missing plays … so, it’s a problem.”
And LSU isn’t making very many plays either.
Its defense forced one turnover against Ole Miss and zero against Kentucky. The Tigers have forced only eight giveaways all season — two fewer than the first six games played last season.
LSU is also struggling to bring quarterbacks to the ground.
The Tigers sacked Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss twice and Kentucky’s Kenny Minchey just once, even though Pro Football Focus data says they pressured the two passers a combined 41 times.
Because LSU didn’t create many negative plays in the two losses, Ole Miss and Kentucky could stay ahead of the chains and march into the red zone, where they usually found ways to score touchdowns.
“We have to play more consistent,” Kiffin said. “Too high and low, too up and down in all phases of the game.”
The good
Kiffin doesn’t think that LSU tackled well in its loss to Kentucky, but he can take solace in the fact that the Tigers are actually the SEC’s top tackling team.
They’ve missed only 41 tackles this season, according to PFF, which is the fewest in the league. Ole Miss broke nine tackles against LSU, and Kentucky slipped through five.
LSU is also one missed assignment away from having some truly eye-popping run defense numbers.
The Wildcats broke off a 77-yard rush on their first play from scrimmage, then managed to pick up only 78 more yards on their next 31 carries (2.5 yards per carry). Ole Miss ran into some similar problems on the ground in Week 3: its offense scrounged together just 63 yards on 25 carries (2.5 ypc).
Even with Kentucky’s long run factored in, LSU ranks fifth nationally in rushing defense. It’s ceding only 75 yards per game on the ground.
Kiffin has also signaled hope that linebacker Whit Weeks could return at some point this season from the leg injury he suffered in Week 4 against Texas A&M. His presence would give the defense a boost: across the last two seasons, LSU’s opponents have scored an average of 13 points in the 12 games Weeks has played and 30 in the seven contests he’s missed.
“I don’t like that I looked that up and then he got hurt,” Kiffin said with a chuckle on Monday. “That’s probably why I felt so much that day (after Texas A&M) about it.”
Looking ahead
Both Kentucky and Ole Miss are entering Week 7 ranked top 50 nationally in scoring offense.
LSU has three such teams left on its schedule: Mississippi State (20th), Alabama (3rd) and Tennessee (44th).
The Bulldogs have scored at least 30 points in four of the five games they’ve played, but they could face the Tigers on the road Saturday without star quarterback Kamario Taylor or lead running back Fluff Bothwell. Both were listed as questionable to play in the first availability reports the SEC released this week.
Still, the LSU defense is in for another challenge. This one will double as a chance to start proving that its top-10 national rank is more than just a mirage.
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