It’s just the halfway point in the regular season, but there’s some awfully big games on tap for several Sun Belt teams this weekend.
Let’s start at 11 a.m. Saturday morning at James Madison. The reigning league champion Dukes will be taking on the upstart Georgia State Panthers.
No one took the Panthers very seriously after they combined for four wins over the previous two seasons, but it’s hard to deny what coach Dell McGee has done so far this season.
The Panthers are 4-1 overall and 1-0 in league play, and it doesn’t look like a fluky start. Georgia State is leading the league in total offense and total defense.
The Dukes are 5-0 in the series, although last year’s win was only 14-7. Even a competitive game would open some eyes, and James Madison beat Georgia Southern by only a field goal last week.
Then there are the Ragin’ Cajuns. After suffering a heartbreaking 32-31 loss in Ruston last week, the Cajuns return home to meet the reigning West champion Troy Trojans. It’s hard to imagine the Cajuns suffering a second league loss and still making it to the Sun Belt championship game.
1. James Madison
Record: 6-0, 3-0 Sun Belt
Last week: Defeated Georgia Southern 27-24
This week: vs. Georgia State, 11 a.m. ESPNU
Extra points: James Madison still looks like the class of the Sun Belt, but last week’s performance suggests the gap might not be as wide. The Dukes were outgained 465-438 at Georgia Southern and were limited to 5 of 16 on third downs. Defensively, the Dukes gave up 343 yards and three touchdowns passing to Max Johnson. The difference was owning a plus-two turnover edge against the Eagles.
2. Louisiana Tech
Record: 3-2, 1-0
Last week: Defeated UL 32-31
This week: at UL-Monroe, 7 p.m. ESPN+
Extra points: Things weren’t looking great for most of Saturday’s Sun Belt debut against UL, but quarterback Blake Baker’s passing and rushing helped Tech overcome two double-digit deficits. UL had no answer for Baker, who threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns, including a pair to tight end Eli Finley. The Cajuns did expose the Tech defense with success in the deep passing game.
3. Troy
Record: 3-2, 1-0
Last week: Defeated Southern Miss 55-34
This week: at UL, 4 p.m. ESPN+
Extra points: The Troy offense has to be supremely confident after posting 33 first downs and 662 total yards in last week’s blowout of Southern Miss. Troy also was able to get extra rest since that game occurred on Tuesday, Oct. 6. The Troy defense did give up 30 first downs and 391 yards passing to the Golden Eagles. The Trojans are riding veteran quarterback Goose Crowder, and he’s delivering in a big way.
4. Georgia State
Record: 4-1, 1-0
Last week: Open date
This week: at James Madison, 11 a.m. ESPNU
Extra points: The rubber is about to meet the road for Georgia State. The Panthers have come out of nowhere to threaten being a contender in the Sun Belt East. The only loss is a competitive one at Central Florida. We’re about to find out how serious Georgia State is about this Cinderella thing. The Panthers are No. 4 in Sun Belt rushing defense, and it will need to neutralize James Madison running back George Pettway. Both offenses are top two in the Sun Belt in points scored.
5. UL
Record: 4-2, 1-1
Last week: Lost at Louisiana Tech 32-31
This week: vs. Troy, 4 p.m. ESPN+
Extra points: The worry going into last week’s trip to Ruston was how the defense would handle the loss of safety Collin Jacob. That concern proved to be accurate with Tech throwing for 338 yards. The Cajuns will face another capable quarterback Saturday, so progress in that area is critical. The offense left too much on the table, despite posting a healthy 31 points. The loss of receiver Landon Strother doesn’t help the Cajuns’ cause.
6. Georgia Southern
Record: 3-4, 2-1
Last week: Lost to James Madison 27-24
This week: Defeated Old Dominion 23-15 on Thursday
Extra points: On Thursday, quarterback Max Johnson suffered an injury after a 6-of-8 passing start and backup Turner Holton responded to the challenge by throwing for 199 yards and a touchdown on 23-of-30 passing. Defensively, Georgia Southern limited ODU running back Devin Roche to 25 yards on 15 carries. The Eagles owned the time of possession by 13 more minutes to overcome going 3 of 12 on third down.
7. South Alabama
Record: 4-2, 2-0
Last week: Defeated Arkansas State 56-49
This week: Open date
Extra points: Most of the talk in the Sun Belt West has revolved around Troy, Louisiana Tech and UL. After enjoying an open date this weekend, the Jaguars will have a great opportunity to make a statement about how serious of a contender they are. It’ll start against Marshalll, but then South Alabama will play Louisiana Tech, UL and Troy. We’ll find out in a hurry how real the 2-0 league start is moving forward.
8. Arkansas State
Record: 2-4, 0-2
Last week: Lost to South Alabama 56-49
This week: at Southern Miss, 6 p.m. ESPN+
Extra points: The Red Wolves’ chances of winning the Sun Belt West are gone with an 0-2 start. But with the way transfer quarterback Trey Owens has been throwing the ball in recent weeks, don’t be surprised if Arkansas State plays a spoiler. We’ll soon find out if the Red Wolves are more angry than discouraged after the 0-2 start in league play.
9. Appalachian State
Record: 3-2, 0-1
Last week: Lost to Old Dominion 10-3
This week: at Coastal Carolina, Friday (n)
Extra points: Just when it looked like the Mountaineers might be a true contender in the East, last week’s monsoon happened and apparently they aren’t mudders. The offense managed only nine first downs and 158 total yards in the loss. Malachi Singleton went from 300-plus passing yards regularly to going 5-of-23 passing for 72 yards.
10. Marshall
Record: 3-3, 0-2
Last week: Lost to Coastal Carolina 27-21
This week: Open date
Extra points: It’s hard to imagine the Herd having a worse first half than last week, going down 27-0 at halftime. Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson threw three interceptions in the first half and was benched. Backup Zion Turner led a comeback with 21 points in the second half on 18-of-27 passing for 219 yards and two scores. It appears the Herd have more questions than answers during their bye week.
11. Coastal Carolina
Record: 2-4, 1-1
Last week: Defeated Marshall 27-21
This week: vs. Appalachian State, Friday (n)
Extra points: Holding on for a six-point win over Marshall kept the Chanticleers’ hopes in the East race alive. Coastal will have to prove the win wasn’t all turnover-induced. Marshall was minus-five in the game, including three interceptions in the first half. Coastal was only 3 of 13 on third downs. Dominic Lee-Knicely did have a good game on the ground with 175 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries.
12. Old Dominion
Record: 2-5, 1-3
Last week: Defeated Appalachian State 10-3
This week: Lost to Georgia Southern 23-15 on Thursday
Extra points: We’ve got to dismiss much of ODU’s 10-3 road win over App State in a driving rainstorm last week. On Thursday, things didn’t go nearly as well at home against Georgia Southern, trailing 23-7 in the third quarter. After rushing for 105 yards at App State, Devin Roche was limited to 25 yards in this one. Both quarterbacks, Ryan Huff and Quinn Henicle, failed to find much success.
13. Southern Miss
Record: 1-4, 0-1
Last week: Lost at Troy 55-34
This week: vs. Arkansas State, 6 p.m. ESPN+
Extra points: The Golden Eagles got extra rest to ponder exactly how bad their defense was in the blowout loss to Troy. The Trojans collected 33 first downs and 662 total yards. Most of that was on the ground, but this week Southern Miss will face more of a passing threat against the Red Wolves. On paper, it’ll be a better matchup for Southern Miss, which is last against the run but No. 5 in the Sun Belt against the pass.
14. UL-Monroe
Record: 0-5, 0-1
Last week: Open date
This week: vs. Louisiana Tech, 7 p.m. ESPN+
Extra points: The ULM defense is ranked dead last in the Sun Belt in pass defense at 268.2 yards a game. Tech quarterback Blake Baker is coming off a home win over UL in which he passed for 319 yards and three touchdowns. If pure desire means anything, ULM will play much closer than most are expecting with more hatred for the Bulldogs than it has for the Ragin’ Cajuns. The good side of the matchup for ULM is the Warhawks are no longer struggling to throw the ball and the Tech defense is susceptible to the deep passing game.
PREDICTION
UL 34, Troy 30
Last week’s 32-31 road loss to Louisiana Tech is going to sting for a long time. The best ointment for it is a win Saturday over Troy. To do so, the defense is going to have to figure out a way to defend the pass better than it did in Ruston. Replacing safety Collin Jacob is looking like a tougher chore than some expected. Now the Cajuns need to elude the turnover bug as fumbling has become commonplace this season. On paper, it’s going to be much tougher to run against Troy than throw the ball. Lunch Winfield is the leader of this team and is coming off his worst performance of the season. It’s hard to imagine him doing it again.
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