When Todd McShay watches Sam Leavitt, he sees one of the most talented quarterbacks in this year’s draft class.
McShay, an NFL Draft analyst at The Ringer, admires Leavitt’s arm talent and his ability to make off-platform throws. He loves that the LSU quarterback isn’t afraid to launch balls into tight windows and can extend plays with his legs when the initial play breaks down.
McShay believes Leavitt is one of the best quarterbacks in a deep 2027 draft class. But ask the former ESPN draft analyst whether he should forgo his final year of eligibility and declare for the draft this winter, and he thinks the former Arizona State quarterback should stay at LSU for a second year.
“Knowing the history of the NFL drafting quarterbacks,” McShay said, “and the correlation between game experience and long-term NFL success, and even shorter, early career NFL success, I’d love to see him back for another year, and we could all wait for the 2028 draft.
“He’s definitely heading into a trajectory of being an early first-round pick.”
But Leavitt’s play over the last few weeks has him in a position where his NFL future could start a year early, placing him in the conversation as a potential first- or second-round pick.
Leavitt’s completed at least 70% of his passes in each of his last five games, throwing 14 touchdown passes in that span. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton is the only Southeastern Conference quarterback with a higher Total QBR than Leavitt this season.
“Most of the grades that I heard from NFL scouts coming into the season were in that second-round range,” Dane Brugler, an NFL Draft analyst for The Athletic, said. “Based on the first month of the season, I think that seems maybe a little generous, but he’s playing more on that level lately.”
Brugler has a point: Leavitt’s first few performances at LSU weren’t always pretty.
He threw an interception in each of his first six games, including three against Louisiana Tech. He struggled to align his feet with his upper-body mechanics, leading to inaccurate throws. He was too eager to bail on his reads and rely on his legs to make plays.
But since he suffered a hamstring injury against Texas A&M in Week 4, Leavitt’s mechanics have improved, and he’s been more willing to stay in the pocket and progress through his reads.
“(The injury) kind of forced him to remove that from the forefront of his mind, ‘Well, if it’s not there, I’m just going to (run),’ ” McShay said. “ ‘(Instead) I’ve gotta go through my reads. I’ve got to stay patient in this pocket. I can trust what the read is and where my eyes should go.’ ”
Whether this uptick in production leads to Leavitt leaving for the NFL this winter comes down to two things. How does he perform against Alabama, Texas and Tennessee — the three best defenses on LSU’s schedule? And what happens to the rest of this year’s deeply talented but inconsistent quarterback class?
Oregon’s Dante Moore, Texas’ Arch Manning and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers have all been discussed as potential early first-round picks, but they’ve all struggled enough that they could return to school next year. Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker has flashed immense potential but lacks experience relative to his peers.
Southern Cal’s Jayden Maiava, Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava, Missouri’s Austin Simmons, Miami’s Darian Mensah, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss could all be picked in the first couple of rounds — either this year or next — but none are viewed as slam-dunk picks.
Leavitt likely sits with the second group of quarterback prospects, but his exact standing is unclear, especially given the uncertainty surrounding which quarterbacks will even declare for the draft and the remaining defenses Leavitt still has to face.
“Of the guys that have that ability to go in or out, (Leavitt) is one of the ones I’m kind of earmarking (where) I’m kind of 50-50 on,” Fran Duffy, an NFL Draft analyst for ALLCITY Network, said. “Whereas Arch, I’m kind of leaning towards him going back. Dante Moore, I kind of think I’m leaning towards him going back now that he’s out for the year. LaNorris Sellers, I think I’d probably lean toward him going back to school.
“So a lot of these other guys, I feel like they probably go back. But Leavitt is one where I am intrigued to see what his decision is.”
If Leavitt stayed at LSU for a second season, McShay believes his development could mirror what happened to Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix.
Daniels parlayed a second season at LSU into a Heisman Trophy and the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. Nix’s second year at Oregon made him a Heisman finalist and a first-rounder. Joe Burrow’s second year at LSU turned him into a Heisman winner and the No. 1 overall pick.
But staying for an extra season in college hasn’t always paid off. Moore passed up the chance to become a top-10 pick in last year’s draft and then suffered a season-ending concussion four games into this season. Nagging oblique and abdominal pain stripped Garrett Nussmeier of what could’ve been a resume-boosting fifth year in college.
McShay is aware of these cautionary tales, and Brugler acknowledges that the guessing game with this year’s quarterback class — who stays in college and who goes pro — could change the calculus of Leavitt’s decision.
But McShay has always believed quarterback prospects should develop in college and make sure they’re as ready as possible for the NFL before making the leap.
Under Kiffin at LSU, Leavitt’s in a good position to do just that if he stays for a second year.
“I’m texting Lane (Kiffin) this summer, how excited I was to get to see Sam in that system, and to know what Lane has been able to do for quarterbacks in his history,” McShay said. “And just most recently with Jaxson Dart. Like, what was Jaxson Dart before he became first round draft pick Jaxson Dart? What was Trinidad Chambliss before, and what is he now?
“It’s a testament to the individuals… but it’s also a testament to kind of the growth that Lane can help guide. And I’ve always thought that the best plan for Sam is a two-year plan in Baton Rouge.”
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