Something LSU coach Lane Kiffin said a week ago bears repeating.
“This year in the SEC, I really feel like you can win every game on the schedule,” Kiffin said, “and we can lose every game on the schedule.”
The Tigers’ dominant 31-0 win over Kamario Taylor-less Mississippi State may have failed to demonstrate the parity of the transfer portal era. But practically every other SEC game this past Saturday did.
No. 1 Georgia lost 27-24 at home to unranked Auburn.
No. 6 Alabama, a week after losing to Georgia, picked up a second SEC loss at No. 14 Tennessee, 26-10.
No. 7 Texas, fresh off a Red River Rivalry defeat to Oklahoma, added insult to injury with a 27-24 loss to Florida, a program that recently skydived out of the top 25.
Meanwhile, LSU’s road losses to No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 12 Kentucky — by a combined nine points — don’t look so bad. The Wildcats just dumped Oklahoma to improve to 4-1 in SEC play, tying Georgia atop the standings. The Rebels, who were blown out by Florida three weeks ago, just waxed No. 13 Missouri 31-3.
If there’s any year a 9-3 SEC team could be in line for a College Football Playoff berth, this could be it. With no undefeated team in the Big Ten or SEC other than UCLA, No. 18 LSU’s path to the postseason may have just widened.
But the Tigers’ road is also covered by landmines.
No looking past Auburn
Not so long ago, it seemed LSU’s means for redemption would come after the bye week. If the Tigers could beat both Alabama and Texas in Tiger Stadium, they would have two signature wins to override a couple of disappointing road losses.
It’s both good and bad that the No. 13 Crimson Tide and No. 19 Longhorns, each with two SEC losses, appear more beatable than ever. Those could be wins if tight end Trey’Dez Green and linebacker Whit Weeks return for LSU in one or both of those games.
But the contest right before LSU’s bye might be just as important. Auburn, which just beat Georgia, will play host to its fellow Tigers in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
LSU is riding an eight-game losing streak in SEC road games. Auburn has won nearly 76 percent of its home games all-time despite a 19-19 mark over the past five seasons, but Jordan-Hare Stadium should be energized after what first-year coach Alex Golesh and his squad accomplished in Athens, Georgia.
Quarterback Byrum Brown, who followed Golesh from South Florida, rushed for 115 yards on the Bulldogs’ defense. Auburn’s defense picked off Gunner Stockton twice and forced a fumble to lodge an upset.
It remains to be seen how Auburn manages the emotional high of this past Saturday, but Nick Saban called Jordan-Hare Stadium “haunted” because of how many missed kicks, interceptions for touchdowns and last-second scores seem to shape contests there.
The chaos of the SEC has served LSU a resume-building opportunity before November, but it means passing through one of the conference’s most chaotic venues unscathed.
Rethinking November
Nothing changes from LSU’s perspective, because the Tigers have to win as much as possible to not submit themselves to the CFP selection committee’s roulette wheel.
But a three-game stretch against Alabama, Texas and Tennessee is suddenly harder to read on a scale of difficulty.
Alabama will either recover this coming weekend against a Texas A&M squad that’s limped out to a 1-3 start in SEC play, or Kaleb DeBoer’s crew will head into a bye week on the most shocking of three-game losing streaks.
The Tide scored 56 points on Mississippi State to open October — and then scored 27 points total against Georgia and Tennessee.
Texas has posted identical 27-24 losses to unranked Oklahoma and Florida and still has to play Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri before making a trip to Baton Rouge.
There’s no telling where the Longhorns will stand come Nov. 14, but LSU’s trip to Neyland Stadium on Nov. 21 is building intrigue. The now-No. 11 Volunteers have held every conference opponent to 20 points or fewer so far.
LSU’s final opponent of the regular season, Arkansas, just claimed its first SEC win, 31-21, over Vanderbilt. That should still be a win for LSU, but nothing’s guaranteed.
What happens next?
Really, it’s anyone’s guess how LSU navigates the chaos.
The most optimistic script has Sam Leavitt, now the SEC’s passing yardage leader, on a continued upward trajectory as he finds his rhythm in an offense that was significantly remade in the transfer portal.
Pair Leavitt with Green post-bye, fortify LSU’s defense with Weeks at some point, and it’s possible there is enough chaos elsewhere in the SEC that LSU slips up versus Alabama, Texas or Tennessee and still makes the CFP at 9-3.
There’s also a world where LSU doesn’t survive Auburn, Alabama and Texas are on an upswing when they visit Tiger Stadium, and Tennessee’s offense develops to better complement a standout defense. In that scenario, the Tigers could be 8-4 or 7-5.
Strap in, because LSU’s last handful of SEC games could make for a wild ride.
#SEC #chaos #LSU #College #Football #Playoff #picture #LSU
Source link
