Why Tories are talking about winning the next election

Her approval rating has soared in recent months and she is now one of only two party leaders with a net positive rating (the other being Prime Minister Andy Burnham), according to pollsters More In Common., external

In a presentation to a packed fringe meeting, More In Common’s Luke Tryl said the Tory leader is seen as a “breath of fresh air” by focus groups, with many voters on the right describing her as someone unafraid to “say it as it is”.

In particular, her punchy performances at Prime Minister’s Questions have made a strong impression, earning plaudits such as “intelligent”, “professional” and “principled” from those who have seen her in action, according to Tryl.

But like Burnham, Badenoch’s personal popularity has yet to transfer to her party, he added, with the Tories being seen as “outdated” and “divided”.

It was not all gloom – in contrast to his presentation at last year’s Tory conference – and there were “signs of recovery”, Tryl said, with a large pool of voters out there who might consider voting Tory, under the right circumstances.

Conservatives freely admit the problem they have got is that voters don’t trust them to deliver on any of their promises, when they had 14 years in government to do something about the problems they now say are so pressing.

“Of course, Kemi’s ahead of us, we know that,” Conservative chairman Kevin Hollinrake told the More in Common meeting.

“Because people do trust Kemi and they don’t trust us, that’s how I would put it in a nutshell.

“But we are building on that.”

Badenoch answers the trust question by saying that the party is under new management now.

She has ditched some of the “culture war” rhetoric and is focusing hard on the economy, and setting out her guiding principles, which amount to a return to old-school Conservatism.

She is not saying that the party could win an election outright if it was held now, arguing that no one could.

But she has ruled out governing with Reform UK in a hung parliament, telling the BBC she would rather hold another election.

Hollinrake sounded a cautious note at the More In Common fringe.

“We are not where we need to be right now. We don’t want an election right now, ideally. Ideally, it would come way down the track.”

But deputy leader Alex Burghart was quick to stress that the party is making every effort to ensure it is ready for a snap election.

“We are preparing for an election now,” he told the meeting.

“We are convinced we can win the election outright.”