Trump’s Venezuela attack has added to conviction in an asset class investors were already favoring coming into 2026: metals. Rising geopolitical risk and tight supply and demand led to a blockbuster 2025 for precious metals such as gold and silver and industrial metals such as copper. Gold surged more than 64% last year. Silver skyrocketed more than 141%. Copper gained more than 40%. That rally appeared to be continuing Tuesday: Gold continued its rise Silver jumped more than 4%, on pace for a record close Copper rallied as much as 5%, topping $13,000 for the first time Wall Street was already anticipating further upside for these metals coming into 2026, if not to the same degree as last year, given that the macro backdrop remains favorable. However, the ouster of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend now has strategists considering whether there’s further upside risk. “I think that industrial metals can go parabolic in ’26,” said Marko Papic, chief strategist, geomacro strategy at BCA Access. Papic said he had been considering taking profits in copper and other commodities this year, after their massive run-up of the last several years, but said he is now “far less likely” to do so as they could have further upside. The strategist expects that the decision from U.S. President Donald Trump to overthrow a leader, and claim the country’s oil, could spur other countries to start stockpiling their own reserves of oil, gold and other commodities. “It suggests that the United States of America, which is still the world’s most powerful country, has a profoundly different set of assumptions about how global commodities and natural resources are going to be distributed,” Papic said. “And that could create an impetus in the world for major powers to start carving up natural resources in taking them off the global market, so that there isn’t a unified oil market or natural gas market or copper market or or nickel market, but rather, there are those controlled by the various powers on the planet.” “It creates a sense that global trade of commodities is going to have to be restructured,” he continued. “And so that’s why I think the biggest winners of what just happened are going to be prices of commodities.” He is not the only one to think there’s upside risk to current forecasts. Amy Gower, commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, reiterated her strong outlook on metals in a note titled “Metals On The Rise” that the heightened geopolitical risk means a wider range of outcomes to her views on precious metals. She has a $4,800 target on gold. “Recent events in Venezuela bring geopolitical risk to the fore, supporting precious metals holdings with gold and silver both strong performers overnight,” Gower wrote. “Our FX team also notes that they expect debates around institutional credibility and USD’s safe-haven status to persist if not be amplified in the coming days, which may also be a tailwind for precious metals.” Papic said investors seeking exposure have a wide selection of avenues they could take, including buying up the physical assets themselves, or adding exposure to ETFs that offer a diversified approach to commodities or to specific assets. In December, Citi Research launched coverage of copper miners Hudbay Minerals with a buy/high risk rating, and the U.S.-listed shares of Lundin Mining with a buy rating, saying it expects copper prices will push to record levels in 2026. Week to date, Hudbay Minerals has rallied more than 8%, while Lundin is up nearly 7%.
