In September, I wrote a moderately bullish buy-write/covered call article on Netflix . Around that same time, Paramount Skydance approached Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav about a potential acquisition at ~$19 per share, the first of several private bids for the company. During this time, Netflix fell more than 6% through the end of October, and while that was not great, the covered call strategy did outperform because the call that was sold offset about 40% of the stock’s decline before the option expired. More recently, I haven’t been involved for two key reasons. The company fell below its long-term moving average after it reported its third-quarter earnings on Oct. 21. Perhaps more importantly, Netflix formally entered the bidding war for Warner Bros., ultimately offering $27.75 a share in cash and stock for WBD’s studios and streaming assets, ~$83 billion , an offer that Warner accepted. Generally in a situation like this that’s essentially the end to the story other than the trading activity of the “risk arbs” or “merger arbs,” who generally try to squeeze the last few dollars out of the deal if the target company — in this case WBD, is trading at a discount to the deal price by purchasing the target company’s shares, selling the acquirer’s company’s shares and often selling calls against the target company’s shares on or near the anticipated deal price. Indeed, some of that took place here. Still, not to be outdone, Paramount Skydance, headed by Larry Ellison’s son David, almost immediately announced a hostile bid for the entirety of Warner, which would include the company’s cable properties such as CNN, Food Network, HGTV, OWN, and others, valued at nearly $103.6 billion. Considering that the bid is 4x the enterprise value of PSKY (and almost 7x its market cap), this almost sounds akin to Jonah swallowing the whale. In this case, though, Jonah is backed by the Ellison family fortune , and David’s father, Larry, is worth considerably more than Paramount and Warner combined, even after the recent weakness in Oracle ‘s shares. Still, Warner’s board appears to be unconvinced that David’s assurances that “money is no object” without certain financial guarantees from the parent. It’s an interesting situation to be sure, but where does this leave Netflix? If antitrust regulators block the deal, or Netflix walks away, Netflix owes Warner a $5.8 billion “breakup” fee, the largest ever, and more than half the adjusted net income the company is expected to make this year. Meanwhile, if Warner accepts a higher bid, they in turn owe Netflix a breakup fee of $2.8 billion. If it feels like there are a lot of moving parts, there are. Even as Netflix and Paramount try to outdo each other, they face pushback from unions, including the Writers Guild of America, SAG-AFTRA, and the Teamsters, politicians, including Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, California Congressman Ro Khanna, and Kansas Senator Roger Marshall, and numerous others. This uncertainty has continued to pressure Netflix shares, which are now down almost 29% from the June highs, while options premiums have risen considerably. Ignoring the takeover showdown and posturing, Netflix remains the leader in the streaming space. This business will likely see revenue approach $51 billion in fiscal year 2026, with year-over-year adjusted earnings per share growth exceeding 20% and free cash flow growth exceeding 30%. The company doesn’t hit my “buy” screen largely because it’s still below the long-term moving average, but equity screens aren’t always the last word on whether a stock becomes attractive. At 30x forward earnings estimates, Netflix would appear very reasonably valued, ignoring the deal uncertainty. An investor interested in some upside exposure at a more attractive valuation due to the uncertainty and pullback in the share price might consider a call spread risk reversal, which combines a bullish position on the stock with a view that the uncertainty will likely resolve within the next two months or so, such as the February 88/96/110 structure outlined below. DISCLOSURES: All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
